Monday, 27 June 2011

Developed countries will be begging from the Up-and-Comers

The 3-D Hurricane and the New Normal  by Jason Hsu
"   Emerging countries have low debt-to-GDP ratios. Specifically, the Asian Emerging Market countries generally maintain trade surpluses and, therefore, also act as suppliers of global capital to the debt-laden developed economies. These healthier balance sheets, over time, mean that emerging economies would represent lower credit risk than many of their developed counterparts. 
   In the New Normal, emerging countries will not only converge with the developed countries, but in fact are likely to overtake many of them in short order. From the credit spread for developed sovereign debt versus emerging sovereign debt, capital markets may not have fully comprehended this pending reversal of fortune between the developed and developing economies. Emerging economies currently are assessed higher credit spreads versus developed economies, although they often have significantly better underlying collateral quality and debt capacity. This reflects an irrational bias on the part of investors."

From John Mauldin's  free newsletter, "Outside the Box".

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