Saturday, 13 August 2011

No billion dollars for Obama's election campaign. Updated and Updated

It isn't going to happen.
Even though it started strong.
"One and done".  
"New York voters disapprove 49 - 45 % of the job President Obama is doing".
"In need of redemption himself"  Maureen Dowd.
Most of his bundlers from 2008 have moved on.  Fewer than half the top bundlers remain.
The preference cascade is kicking in.

Update September 26th.  "As of June 30, Mr. Obama had raised $1.5 million from individual donors in Illinois, compared with $7.5 million by June 30, 2007".
 “Oh, it's going to be much tougher this time,” says Chicago art dealer Paul Gray, who rounded up as much as $800,000 for the first Obama presidential campaign. “There's a lot of people who are pretty depressed; there are some who are aggressively negative about Obama himself.”

March 15 2012:  Getting worse, smaller sums, lottery bribes, low renewal rate.
"Fewer than 7% of 2008 donors renewed their support in the first quarter.
Appeals don't ask for $10, $15, $25 or $50 donations as they did in 2008, but generally for $3. Nor are the appeals mostly about issues; many are lotteries.
Only a low price point with a big benefit can overcome donor resistance among people who contributed via mail or the Internet in 2008. It also points to higher-than-expected solicitation costs and lower-than-expected fund-raising returns".

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