Sunday, 11 September 2011

World economy outlook: "Avoid the siren songs of false precision"

"The only realistic prediction that can be made about the next few months is that events will be unpredictable.  ..  Let us confess that the situation globally and in Europe is unprecedented and thus intrinsically unpredictable; predictions based on the past or models plucked from the ether may prove to be not just inaccurate, but disastrously misleading to all those who put store in them.   .. In other words, let us speak in praise of flexibility, and avoid the siren songs of false precision and certitude".
Zero Hedge.

1 comment:

  1. Precision and accuracy are different. I always remember the Least Significant Digits rule of thumb: in any calculation, the result can only have as many significant digits as the least accurate of the components (whether additive or multiplicative).