Monday, 16 January 2012

Three predictions about the US election.

There ain't going to be no billion bucks in Obama's campaign treasury.  (Backpedaling has begun)
UPDATE below.

It's Romney's turn to get a surge of support as voters look for reasons to like him.  A get-along guy who knows how to handle a job-axe is going to sound good in 2012. (Gingrich helping here). 

Knowing the right tool for the job.
Last minute flaps will swing more independent voters than policy does. The team with the most skill and luck at producing or navigating those flaps will win.  If only five percent of the votes change, it's called "an historic win".

UPDATE Feb 1st: "The fundraising pace for Obama’s campaign itself, and not the total with the DNC, has actually lagged slightly behind that of George W. Bush in 2004.  The amounts  have also fallen a bit each time in the last two quarters.  I’ve noted that at each disclosure point in 2011 and projected the eventual total to somewhere around $250 million — a substantial number and certainly good enough for a three-month general election campaign, but the billion-dollar behemoth is as likely as a the Loch Ness monster giving an interview over the summer".

No comments:

Post a Comment