Sunday, 25 October 2015

Money Bags Or Small Donors: Who Backs Whom And The Outlook For 2016

Last time the candidate with the most small donors won. Obama beat Romney.  The three who fit that bill this time around are Carson, Cruz and Trump and, oddly, they are the front runners.  The trend is to favour thousands of small over dozens of large.

Three data troves show it:  The ratios October 16th for all Republican candidates, the historic ratio of big donors to small ones for the last five presidential contests, and the ratios for all congressmen in 2012.

In the second chart, Romney had seven times more fat than lean donors while his opponent, Obama, had three times more lean than fat.  Obama won.  So far this cycle in the first chart, only Carson, Cruz and Trump raised more money from little guys and Trump is asking his to be ended.  Oddly, they are the front runners.

"Small donor" means $200 in the first chart, $2000 in the second chart, and increments of not more than $200 in the third.
It's worth noting that money bags played a bigger role in past presidential elections than they do now, thanks to digital media and on-line funding. (2nd chart)
It's sad to note that the congressmen chart  (the 3rd one) shows that fat money plays an outsize role in who gets elected, only 1/6th of the candidates being more popular with the common citizen than with the insiders.  The big givers are 1% of the 1% in America.
Story at Huffington Post October 16th

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