Monday, 2 November 2015

Money talks. It says "Goodbye".

The stunning turnabout in capital flows, a 16% plunge in the last year, is Made In Canada.  Canadians are shipping Canuck bucks out of country, looking for better opportunity.  It's not evil oligarchs pulling their loot out. There's better money to be made elsewhere and not just because a barrel of oil is cheap.  The polls have been saying for months that Liberals were gaining ground in Canada and the NDP coup in oil-rich Alberta has put the kibosh on a lot of oil projects.

Supporting points in the linked lead article:  RBC is investing billions to buy a US bank.  Nine of ten top performing companies in the TSX have favoured buying abroad over expanding at home. Canadian Mutual Funds have been plowing wealth into global choices for the last six months.
"Canada’s basic balance - a combination of the capital and the current account: a measure of national accounts that spans everything from trade to financial-market flows - swung from a surplus of 4.2% of GDP to a deficit of 7.9% in the 12 months ending in June."
Also from Bloomberg as quoted by FP and
"Money is flooding out of Canada at the fastest pace in the developed world as the nation’s decade-long oil boom comes to an end and little else looks ready to take the industry’s place as an economic driver."
Both post the chart below from BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
Another factor, no fault of Canada's, is the boost the US dollar gets for being the unit of account at a time that other trade areas are handling their finances worse than the US.

1 comment:

  1. Money does not have "feelings" - it is invested for maximum return - it is the economy stupid. There will not be enough $200 k salary earners to cover the cost of a Liberal economy. Trudeau will go after those that earn less than that amount. Enjoy the ride, you are going to keep less of your money because the government needs it more.