Wednesday 9 March 2016

Electability Poll Hogswallop'

Head to Head polls make screaming headlines.  Trump loses to Clinton, Sanders, Cruz and even Rubio.   The winning margin in past US presidential elections is inside the margin of error of many past polls.  See the data.    "Loses by 2"   "Wins by 3" in head-to-head are close to meaningless remarks at this stage and verbiage promoting such freakily scandalous and stunning news qualifies for hogswallop.

The data in 2012 shows Romney within a percent of two of Obama right up to election night.  He wasn't a loser until that final Tuesday. The second chart shows the percent of the popular vote that went to the winner in recent presidential campaigns. Apart from a couple blowouts with Reagan, Johnson and Nixon, many races are close and indeterminate until voting day.  The first chart is from Real Clear Polling and the second from Wikipedia.



Happily Married

True love is one of those impossible things that can be believed six times over before breakfast.  See the Alice quote below.  Grownups organize life around "I" this and "You" that but toddlers are truly alive before that.  At a later age, from that same nature comes "Being in love" as male and females of the species.   Who we are is the superstructure and what we are is the matrix.  They work by different rules and have different goals.   They don't have to make harmonized sense all the time.  Just go with it and blink past the funny spots.  Which brings me to being happily married:

Happy and hamming it up
I wake in the morning and hold my wife very close to me, feeling her breathe as she falls back to sleep. The In Love matrix bubbles up with the same old thoughts:  "You are so beautiful.  You are soooo beautiful.  I love you. My darling, my beautiful darling. You are mine.   I will always be good to you". And on and on.

The superstructure that runs the show by day is thinking about making breakfast and designing roof trusses, about men and women at the square dance last night.  The matrix continues to bubble up, "my darling, adorable and precious, what a miracle".  The superstructure decides it's morning and heads for the showers.   This is like having two (wonderful) kinds of life in a single vehicle.   You don't have to make sense of love.  Enjoy it and blink past the rest  ---the unreasonably pleased, driven and giddy interludes and the jealous and possessive moments incompatible with being a modern..


From "Through The Looking Glass":
Alice laughed: "There's no use trying," she said; "one can't believe impossible things."
"I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

THE OLD, OLD STORY:




The Colonel: "Yes, He was Senior Wrangler of his Year, and She took a Mathematical Scholarship at Girton; and now they're Engaged!"
Mrs. Jones: "Dear me, how interesting! And oh, how different their Conversation must be from the insipid twaddle of Ordinary Lovers!"
THEIR CONVERSATION
He: "And what would Dovey do if Lovey were to die?"
She: "Oh, Dovey would die too!"






Monday 7 March 2016

Proof That Dem Hijinks Are Blocked By Voter ID.

Eight of the first sixteen primaries and caucuses added voter ID since 2010.    Democrat turnout with voter ID was down 37% and without voter ID was down 15%.  With the same rules, Republican turnout was up massively everywhere.  Check it out.  Reported first at Huffington Post.  Low enthusiasm for the Donkey people accounts for less than half the decline.  Bad behaviour by political operatives, now being stymied, accounts for the rest.  Voter ID is a low cost small government fix.  Makes me glad to live in Canada.

Sunday 6 March 2016

Super Tuesday Data Show Trump Wins Florida

NYT Upshot data show Trump did fine.  See persuasive chart of all four states last Tuesday.  Cruz soared and got his votes from Rubio's flameout.  Trump votes matched expectation.   

Cruz is going to scavenge Rubio's home state votes next Tuesday and let Trump romp home with 99 winner-take-all delegates.  We've read elsewhere that Cruz is okay with that, expecting Rubio to pull out leaving a two man race.

Minimum Wage Graphic To Torment Believers

If you don't read Small Dead Animals, here is the graphic you need to show people who believe $15/hour ought to be the minimum wage. and every job should get it.   They believe in magic boats.

Not a Typo: 14,000 wind turbines idle in US

When the subsidy's gone, the turbines are toast and there's no green cleanup squad.  Not hundreds but thousands are idle.  Read more at "American Elephant".
Excerpt:
"When it is time to clean up after a failed idea, no green environmentalists are to be found. Wind was free, natural, harnessing Earth’s bounty for the benefit of all mankind, sounded like a good idea. Wind turbines, like solar panels, break down. They produce less energy before they break down than the energy it took to make them. The wind does not blow all the time, or even most of the time. When it is not blowing, they require full-time backup from conventional power plants. Without government subsidy, they are unaffordable. With governments facing financial troubles, the subsidies are unaffordable. "
























Re-stated:
They are rusting hulks and no environmentalists are willing to pay to scrap them.
They didn't earn their keep.
They killed thousands of raptors.
When wind power makes sense you will need no subsidy.


















Saturday 5 March 2016

Monkeyi brain waves steer machines.

"Monkeys drive wheelchairs" - It's all over the internet this week. The new idea is wiring up not just one or two things but hundreds of nerve ends to capture complex signals, both to send and receive.  Duke University researchers passively pushed macaque monkeys through the grape reward pathway on fancy electric scooters.  The monkey brain waves were captured as they got close to the grapes.  Their own brain signals were later fed back to them to prompt those parts of the brain to fire up on their own.  The monkeys soon learned to amplify this and added distance-to-the-goal compensation too.

On line stories are mostly about quadraplegics getting a new lease on life.  What about the normal getting super abilities to do things remotely?  That includes work tasks.   There's a whole class of "handicapped" that we call senior citizens in care homes.   If old and infirm people (over 150 years old) move to their in-orbit weightless care homes to retire and have some brain implants too, what exactly distinguishes them from active people in their prime who get things done?
Link for video below.

Chimps share a stone throwing ritual belief, even when alone

These filmed chimpanzees share a symbolic behaviour.  They throw stones in a ceremonial way at a specific tree.  They throw these stones when no other chimp can see them.  The camera trap shows a succession of adult male and female chimps choosing a stone, looking around, then hucking it at the trunk and heading off.  Source: Scientific American

Monday 29 February 2016

Vote Trump and His Daughter to the White House: Hugh Hewitt

Hugh Hewitt gives six reasons to vote Trump.  Ivanka Trump is number six.
"And, finally, sixth: Donald’s daughter and Svengali Ivanka is a smart, smart, smart lady with an extraordinary intellect and influence on her father. We get the GOP’s own Valerie Jarrett, only this one with a sense of America’s role in the world and the same resolve to succeed as Jarrett possesses."
It's not that Hugh would eagerly pick Trump and you remember Trump insulted Hugh after a "gotcha" interview back in September, but Hewitt has six good reasons to vote Trump:
The first three are the three supreme court judges he will probably get to nominate.  "Diane Sykes and Bill Pryor are two fine judges that Trump has mentioned as possible nominees and he made the right commitment on religious liberty to me on stage Thursday night."  Fourth, Donald is a builder and will rebuild the navy. Fifth, the rulers of China and Russia will think twice before crossing him.

"An extraordinary intellect and influence on her father". Hewitt has had her on his show.
Something to think about.
FDOTUS and executive vice president of the Trump Organization.

Saturday 27 February 2016

Two Clinton Funnies

h/t  powerlineblog
Security on a terrorist's iphone and who is Bill Clinton inclined to vote for?


Friday 26 February 2016

Breitbart liveblogging the entire US election: "Horse Race Live Wire" is a new type of news.

Breitbart's "Horse Race Live Wire" page has over a 100 posts so far today, picking up within minutes all the political stories I've seen anywhere - the video clips - tweets - photographs - punditries - bon mots and scandals.  Reposted with links are all the stories that are making news in the primaries and caucuses including Bernie's and Hillary's doings.  Breitbart likes Trump.  Each day a new page is started with the "Horse Race Live Wire" theme.  Bookmark Breitbart and settle back.   During breaking news, the posts are minutes apart.   It's a new type of news.  I like it.

http://www.breitbart.com/
 


Thursday 18 February 2016

Good Fences Make Good Neighbours: The Vatican's is higher than the US-Mexico border.

The Pope made neẃs yesterday with his provocative mass at the Mexico-US border. I get the part about compassion for those who yearn for a better life but not for the right to break into someone else's place to get it.  His foray into US politics includes saying that someone who only wants to put up walls isn't a Christian.  It appears that only Donald Trump is the peg for that hole.  The Donald ripostes that the Pope should fear terrorists attacking the Vatican, as they have sworn they will.  John Nolte at Breitbart points out the Vatican is a walled city and far more secure than the US border with Mexico.
1422298814751

US Sidelined Or On Other Team in ME says Ambassador Crocker

Ryan Crocker who was the US Ambassador to Iraq in 2007 has this surprising report.  He's just back from a Middle East visit and the locals are debating two theories about the US:   One theory is that the US has been sidelined while Russia, Iran and Syria dominate.  The other theory is that the US is an active fourth member of the Russia-Iran axis.  Noteworthy for them is the US decision to fund Iran's hegemonic outreach by releasing billions.

Article at Power Line, "An Axis of Three or Four?"

Tuesday 16 February 2016

Trump Presidency Guarantees Rebalancing Between Executive And Congress

The executive faithfully performs the will of congress, upholding the constitution but with discretion in times of war.   Trump, like Obama, thinks the President is the boss.  Unlike Obama, he won't get away with it.  Both sides of both houses of congress will unite to halter this populist parvenu.   This is the bedrock territory of DNCe and GOPe and they will defend it at last.

There have been decades of undeclared war at the president's discretion and that may not be cured, but fixing the balance between the Executive and Legislative branches will be front and center in 2016.
Source

White House Strategy Defeats US Military Tactics

Mark Moyar of the Hoover Institute exposes seven ways white house strategy has overridden and defeated US military tactics.  It's the president's prerogative to define strategy.  The article is the best review I've seen and covers Bush (43) and Obama's years. "Theories on democratization made Bush and Obama overly optimistic about the prospects for intervention in certain countries. " Missing only is the genius to explain how the White House should make better calls.

"When a country enjoys tactical military success as consistently as the United States, responsibility for strategic success must rest primarily with those who make strategy. The American military could be held culpable for recent strategic setbacks were it highly influential in the crafting of strategy. But its influence under the Bush administration was much more limited, and under the Obama administration its strategic advice has largely been ignored.

A review of America’s military interventions since 2001 reveals that seven broad errors account for America’s inability to turn tactical successes into strategic victories. These errors are described below. In every instance, the error was the direct result of presidential decisions on policy or strategy. Some of those decisions ran in direct contradiction of the military’s advice. The military can be faulted for some significant tactical errors, such as ignorance of counterinsurgency in the early years of the Iraq war and excessive reliance on population-centric counterinsurgency doctrine in the middle years of the Afghan war. But the military eventually corrected its major tactical problems, and none of those problems thwarted strategic success."

Monday 15 February 2016

Super Delegates: "Where are Bernie's?" is the story.

News stories about Hillary having several hundred super delegates after the first two primaries are misleading.  Case in point, how did she end up with just 2 delegates more than Bernie if she has several hundred pledged super delegates?  The real story appears to be how little support Bernie Sanders has won, not how much Hillary Clinton has.

Some 4763 delegates are being picked for the nominating convention.  712 of those (less than 20%) are named in advance (super delegates).  They include "distinguished party leaders", senators, representatives, governors, and noteworthy party members. (See chart) As of today, Wikipedia reports 420 of those 712 have expressed a preference for Hillary Clinton but they may vote as they choose, unlike the delegates who are allocated from primaries.

When you read that Hillary has hundreds of delegates more than Bernie, this means she has about 10% of the convention vote preferring her to Bernie, a 10% that is free to change its vote.  How come Bernie Saunders doesn't have a roster of supporters too?  His independent, crusty style has cost him a network.
There's a reason why Sanders isn't getting the level of support Clinton is from Democratic Party leaders. While she has been a Democrat for decades, the same is not true for Sanders, who only caucuses with Democrats in the Senate. In fact, his Senate biography boasts that he is the "longest-serving independent member of Congress."

Not such a bad method either.  Super delegates don't stop change but they reduce the likelihood that small changes in the crowd's desire will steer the boat.  This is like following a four-year smoothed curve for a stock instead of following daily trading peaks and trenches.

Saturday 13 February 2016

Climate Change Science Not Settled Any More: Perfect Storm Of Hypocrisy.

Australian climate scientists about to lose their jobs suddenly discovered the science isn't settled.  The chief of Australia's science agency ( CSIRO) cited the success of AGW research as he announced a layoff of 300 now-redundant scientists to cover a $110 million budget hole.  The need for more science was rediscovered briskly.

“Climate science is not solved,” declared Todd Lane, president of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. “Most of the uncertainty in climate projections is due to uncertainty about the ways to represent physical processes in climate models.

Will Steffen, Emeritus Professor at ANU and a Climate Councillor at the Climate Council of Australia. "We absolutely need to know more about the basic operation of the climate system".

John Church, a CSIRO climate researcher since 1978 who anticipates losing his job. “There is a clear need for ongoing sustained and enhanced observations. The science community is actually struggling to address these issues.”
I called this "hypocrisy" in the lede unfairly.  The AGW triumphalism was the hypocrisy.  This is a return to a more normal scientific state where hypothesis leads to tests and everything settled is tested and retested as knowledge comes to light.  So I hope.

Thursday 11 February 2016

Alzheimers disappearing

I'd prefer tau gene repair to more assisted living spaces in Canada's health budgets. The big story while we wait to live forever is that  the rate of dementia has been going down rapidly, 20% every decade for the last four decades. There's so many more of us living long that our absolute numbers have gone up but the big news is the rate per thousand has plummeted.  The reason why is still a mystery.

And then there's this:  "A cure for the disorder is five to ten years away". The news story is targeted at one form of dementia responsible for 20% of the disorder.

Taking it easy like in the
good old days.
Not about to happen
Assisted living is fine.  Radical renewal of adults is better. Top that up with a policy cure and cultural shift for seniors who want work and pension income until age 130 and beyond.


The rate of change is not slowing down.  There's no mean to revert to this side of the bronze age.

Gravitational Waves From Ancient Black Hole Orgasm Detected Live

The night of September 14th, three observatories tracked a fractional second orgasm of two black hole stars collapsing into each other as their mating circle climaxed 1.3 billion years ago.   Gravitational waves from the disappeared matter were detected in triplicate, milliseconds apart, on earth.   Thank you for atomic clocks, curious minds, and confirmation of Einstein's prediction that such waves exist.

Image from linked story
where more information is posted.

Tuesday 9 February 2016

Trump - Nothing like the guy you see on television. Bring on the copycats.

After reading this warm-hearted anecdote, you may agree with me that Canada and the USA need Trump to come a very close second "pour encourager les autres".  Even a spectacular near miss will bring out bolder candidates for the next election, men and women with the confidence to run for high office with plain talk and an open heart for our country.

From the comments at Hot Air:
"  In 1989 I hitchhiked around America. At one point I found myself on the Island of Nantucket. It was early May, the height of Nantucket’s tourist season. I was pretty much out of money and bought myself a pack of hot dogs for supper.  I went to the harbor to eat them while watching the boats sail around the Island. On one of the private docks there are bungalows that belong to slip owners. Out in front of one of those bungalows was a man grilling several steaks.
   He saw me eating my raw hot dogs and offered to let me cook them on his grill. I put a couple of hot dogs on his grill, and gratefully accepted the beer he offered me. Then, to my surprise, as he was flipping one of his steaks, he knocked my hot dogs into the coals.
He feigned surprise and apologized, and gave me one of the steaks he was grilling.
Yes… the man I am talking about is Donald Trump. No, in 1998 I had no idea who Donald Trump was. I did not find out who he was for several more months.
   During the time were were sitting there drinking Heineken’s and eating our steaks we talked. For probably about 2 and a half to 3 hours. The private Donald Trump is nothing like the person you guys see on television. His sense of humor is slightly ribald, he is soft spoken and gentle. He is amazingly comfortable in his own skin. If the nominee, I am still not sure I will vote for him. But this I do know, anyone expecting him to be rude or snide in victory or even in defeat, have no clue who Donald Trump really is. They are making up a version of him in their own minds, that does not exist."

Saturday 6 February 2016

$170 Trillion Markdown on Oil Reserves

At my shop in the Okanagan, I've been running into skilled Alberta people looking for work.  That never happened before.

Proven oil reserves in the world: >1.7 trillion barrels.
The market value of that oil declined by $100/barrel in the last18 months.
$170 trillion US$ that people were borrowing and lending on has disappeared.

Wikipedia:  GDP of the world economy in 2014 =  $77 trillion. 
The lesser is moved by the greater.  This has got to matter.

And from Zero Hedge:  "Dallas Fed Quietly Suspends Energy Mark-To-Market On Default Contagion Fears".

Baby names rate the Presidents. Hillary is Toast.

This baby name chart has two surprises.  Listed is baby name popularity matched up to the terms of Presidents and their First Ladies.  Two stand out with a flash-in-the-pan mania followed by active revulsion:    Bill Clinton's wife and Michelle Obama's husband.  Conclusion:  Hillary will be bumped by Biden or Sanders for 2016.  All the other names show the normal decline in popularity as older people tend to have names that have gone out of fashion.  No adulatory bump for them.


Friday 5 February 2016

Insufficient Opportunities For Graft

Politicians are individuals.  "What is best for me?" decides the vote.  "What is best for me?" decides the vote for brainy and dorky ones, for radical and stodgy ones, and for you and me, too.  This won't change and that's the good news.    You can count on self interest.  Good policy exploits it and bad policy conceals self interest from public view.

Notes from Glenn Reynolds' USA Today column:  Rapid transit will trump buses because there are more opportunities for graft.  Bus routes can be set up in a day and changed the day after.   LRT trains and subways involve years of construction contracts and jobs and can't be taken away by a second vote.  They bump the value of real estate by tens of millions along the route and around stations.  A lot of players bringing gifts want to cozy up to a politician who will vote for LRT and almost none cozy up for the bus vote.  The projects raise tax revenue.  They make headlines for the politicians where a bus line won't.  Bus lines are more flexible and cheaper but have fewer opportunities to advance a politician's self worth.

In summary: 
"This analysis goes far beyond buses. The explanation for why politicians don’t do all sorts of reasonable-sounding things usually boils down to “insufficient opportunities for graft.” And, conversely, the reason why politicians choose to do many of the things that they do is ... you guessed it, sufficient opportunities for graft.

That graft may come in the form of bags of cash, or shady real-estate deals, or “consulting” gigs for a brother-in-law or child, but it may also come in broader terms of political support and even in opportunities for politicians to feel superior or to humiliate their enemies. What all these things have in common, though, is that they’re not about making life better for voters. They’re about making life better for politicians."
My cure is letting more self-interested voters in to compete for the spoils. That's the beauty of the eWorld.  It's not cynical to rely on human nature, because you can always count on it.
Good decisions have some of the gold coloured virtues on the winning side.
A better picture shows self interest represented in hundreds and even
thousands on both sides of the balances,
like a Massive Online Open Game


Saturday 30 January 2016

Vulgar is good. Another Trump-themed post.

Trump gets schlonged with the term, "Vulgar".   Remember when the Roman church brought out the Vulgate?  They chose to make the secret knowledge of the church available to any common person who could read Latin.   The vulgar are the common people, the general public, what we call nowadays, voters.

For a thousand years, city folk have been snobbing it over country folk, what we call fly-over country.    "Peasant" and "Pagan" derive from the word for countryside.  The "Vulgar" are the general public.   The critics who came up with these terms for the bumpkins and great unwashed hordes at the gate, believe that they are civilized (Latin "civitatis" = city) and urbane (urbs = walled city).   Yes, Trump is vulgar, from the outermost burbs of New York where no civilized people would go, and accessible to commoners. He may not prevail but he deserves to.

Friday 29 January 2016

Networks have the most to lose in 2016

Trump tweets his parade for free while the networks are counting on more than a billion dollars of TV ads in 2016 to put them in the black.  It worked in 2012 but is now in jeopardy.  FOX too has to hate him because he puts a chunk of their business plan in the dumpster.  When Trump pulled an end run on the final GOP network debate, he didn't lose. Though he sounds bizarre asking FOX to make a $5,000,000 donation to the vets, this is naughty politics but good business.  FOX knows they will make substantially more from the one evening's ad sales.  Bring it on, let the networks scramble for a diminishing pile of dollars.  That's what social media are for, to bring down the cost of getting in touch.     

Hollywood pays the big bucks out for star power.  Top pitchers and quarterbacks command stunning sums.   Campaigning is no different.  The television people ascended to power in the fifties and have had half a century pulling the strings of public news and they pay for ratings.  Paying candidates directly to appear on a show sounds iffy to me, but paying a tax to an honourable third party charity to have them on the show sounds just fine.  Should they be elected to public office, the rules change for they owe an answer to the voters who put them there.

Thursday 28 January 2016

Cruz votes Trump

Imitation is the sincerest flattery.  Trump stepped out of the circle and Cruz followed him, offering $1.5 million for veterans in trade for an unsanctioned debate, outside the GOPe perimeter. Cruz is bold but he is following the master.  The rest are on catch-up.  That includes the networks, not just the candidates.  The networks were the gatekeepers and now have competition.

My Trumpian comeback?  "If you want to help our veterans, go right ahead and donate the $1.5 million.  Don't let me stop you."

Megyn, Don't Mess With Trump UPDATE

The Donald's twitter feed is devastating.  The spear point is petty (Meagan) but the spear is aimed at the billion dollar industry cohosting the Democratic party.

UPDATE: The message to Megyn can remain and the Saudi part ownership of Fox can remain but the photo is fake.  Sorry.




Tuesday 26 January 2016

Stroke of bleeding genius - Trump's petulant play to give the last FOX debate a pass.. UPDATE

Until Trump announced he is passing up the last Fox debate, I thought he was merely petty.  The light came on when he actually bugged out of Fox's show.  He's doing "God's work", doing the right a big favour, opening a road around the media's left bias.  Instapundit nails it, calling the American press "Democratic operatives with bylines".   It's the same here at home in Canada.

It's not a debate between the press and the candidates.  It's a debate AMONG candidates and that calls for a moderator, not an adversary.  The "adversary" part is between candidates.  Why we still let CBC and CTV and such like own the stage and define the debate, is beyond me.  They can report it but are just in the way claiming to moderate it.

Source

If Trump pulls off some good ratings for his "off-Broadway" show in Iowa, raising funds for veterans, and if Roger Ailes loses about half the debate viewers in Trump's absence, the next election cycle will have proper debates with referees, not insurgents like Candy Crowley hogging the mike.  The networks and newspapers don't own the message today and will be busy enough trying to salvage a workable business plan just to stay in the game.

Crazy like a fox!  Trump has attracted a lot of new attention and his off-Broadway show will be in Iowa winning voters a couple days before the Primary.


UPDATE:  It gets better. Trump says he'll talk chairman to chairman with Murdoch but won't pick up for Ailes.   Petulance or genius?  I like his face-to-face approach.  Talk to the principals and skip the UN speeches.

UPDATE: FOX is doubling down and wrong-footing it: "Fox News and Google have invited three YouTube personalities to ask questions at the Jan. 28 GOP debate — including a Muslim advocate who describes Donald Trump as a bigot and who visually portrayed him as being in agreement with national socialist Adolf Hitler."

UPDATE:  Quoted at smalldeadanimals:  "Democrats are watching. Trump is framing himself as an enemy of their enemy. (Democrats hate FOX News.)"  And from Kate's link to Scott Adams of Dilbert fame:    "For starters, tell me what you learned about all the other candidates today.
Nothing?   Trump sucked the oxygen out of the room.   Again."   Scott also says Donald will twitter-feed all over the FOX debate: If they bring a knife at him, he'll bring a gun.

UPDATE:  You can call it a fit of pique or showmanship but not lack of courage.  A hundred million people were lined up ready to mock him for lacking a spine before Meagan.  This was a given.  And they are all going to tune in next week to see what Donald does next.  He's done shows for years and you always end a good one with a cliff-hanger for the next.

Money has its own politics.

Shared values of the very rich prevail. Breitbart notes there are over 500 billionaires in the States, some left and some right, but their world views chime together. The ten point summary rings true.  Here are the ledes.  Read the rest.

1.   Billionaires don’t like to pay taxes.
2.   Billionaires like globalization.
3.   Immigration. From the Billionaires’ Consensus point of view, if money and goods can flow freely around the world, why not people?  
4.   Crony capitalism.
5.   Celebrating the “new economy.”  
6.   Environmental elitism.
7.   Earned entitlement cuts.
8.   Free Love, or at least, deregulated love.
9.   More US “engagement” with the world.
10. Always, two tiers—one for them, one for us. 

They're valid viewpoints but it makes my blood boil when behind the scenes tinkering makes them prevail.   #4 is my bugbear.
   

Monday 25 January 2016

So what if Ted Cruz was born in Calgary?

Are Americans afraid Cruz would be a puppet of Trudeau fils?  Is nationalism so strong that we assume a dual or naturalized citizen will betray the homeland?  This is a version of "identity politics" and it's time it took a beating.  Has only a dog something worth saying about dog food?  Has only a black lesbian anything worth saying about black lesbians?  Can only a one-armed paper hanger talk intelligently about wall paper trouble?  

The flap in the states over Cruz' Canadian birth is embarrassing.  It's atavistic, baked into the genes, this distrust of someone who isn't from around here and one of us from way back.  It's especially odd to find this attitude in Canada when thousands of miles separate the communities "that make up this great land".  You could say that "nobody's from around here" when you look up and down the parliamentary benches and see MPs who have no neighbours or family in common from their growing up days.  Yet, there they sit, citizens and patriots all.    Identity politics is illogical to me but it isn't going away any time soon, at least not until Canadians stop cheering the national team franchised nearest to their own home town.

Landlocked Russia needs a buffer kingdom

George Friedman maps the tight spot Russia is in.  All her productive assets, her good farms and industries are in south and east end of their seemingly endless empire.  The rest of the country has little value. 
The only way to trade with the world is through three narrow bottlenecks that her enemies can stopper.   There is no great barrier of mountains or sea to hold off armed Europeans.  She is always going to be poorer than her competitors who are rich in ports and she is always going to feel vulnerable without a buffer of client states.  See Friedman's story here.

Syria is a sideline.  The Ukraine and the trio of Baltic states will always be the main prize.

Why God Made Canadians

"God did not make us to stand patiently in queues and politely clap for our leaders no matter how distant, corrupt, and dismissive. That's why he made Canadians."
Ace of Spades says it's time to be unruly in America and vote out clientist GOP nominees.

I've stood on a deserted street corner at 2 a.m. in Toronto, waiting for the green light to walk. But the part about "corrupt" isn't true.

Source

Saving for a re-tread instead of saving for retirement:

The singularity is arriving.  Your own stem cells and plug-and-play gene edits are about to transform what it means to be old.  Retirement won't mean what it used to mean. You can earn more if you want.  You can also run out of savings before you run out of days.  We'll be the guinea pigs.

Evidence:  Multiple Sclerosis victims conquer the disease with their own stem cells.  "Since we started treating patients three years ago, some of the results we have seen have been miraculous. This is not a word I would use lightly, but we have seen profound neurological improvements."

Evidence: Diabetic mice saved with insulin stem cells. "Scientists have successfully converted human skin cells into fully-functional pancreatic cells. The new cells produced insulin in response to changes in glucose levels, and, when transplanted into mice, the cells protected the animals from developing diabetes in a mouse model of the disease."

Evidence:  Macular degeneration reversible with stem cells?  The blind will see again.

From an earlier post, "The Blind Shall See"   New liver and lung tissue, new pituitary and eyeballs. And more.     Stem cells converted to mice semen resulted in live mouse births.

This is happening in our day.  We have lived to see it. 
I'm interested in a re-tread with fresh skin, a soft cornea with 20-20 vision, but perhaps I'll keep the thinned hair which looks distinguished and is easy to shampoo.

Source

Saturday 23 January 2016

Flab zapper: Is there really a fast safe way to lose fat?

The Daily Mail article holds out hope. A half hour treatment with laser energy to raise the near-surface fat cells temperature by about 5 degrees is enough to kill off 25% of them.  No surgery involved.   Over the following weeks, your body digests and removes the unsave-able tissue.

 

Hmm.  It's easy to imagine the perfect fat fix and hard to come up with a real (other than diet) but this sounds promising.

Moslems who believe in magic blame the West for Islamic Terrorism.

From Strategy Page

Interviews with refugees from the fighting in Iraq and Syria as well as people still in those countries shows that over 80 percent believe the Islamic terrorists .... are creations of the West .... as a means to destroy their countries and Islam. This is nothing new and while all this is unbelievable to most Westerners and largely ignored by Western media and politicians it is very real and has been for a long time.

In the Islamic world, there is a lot of attention paid to sorcery and magic, and people accused of practicing such things are regularly attacked and sometimes executed because “sorcery” is a capital crime under Islamic law. Conspiracy theories are also a popular way to explain away inconvenient facts. 

in 2008 many Pakistanis believed ...the Islamic terrorist attack in Mumbai, India was actually the work of the Israeli Mossad or the American CIA and not the Pakistani terrorists who were killed or captured and identified. Such fantasies are a common explanation, in Moslem nations, for Islamic terrorist atrocities. Especially when Moslems, particularly women and children are among the victims. In response many Moslems tend to accept fantastic explanations shifting the blame to infidels (non-Moslems).

The "inshallah" thing is made worse by a stronger belief in the supernatural and magic in general. This often extends to technology. Thus, many Iraqis believed that American troops wore sunglasses that enabled them to see through clothing, and had armor vests that were actually air conditioned. When they first encountered these beliefs, U.S. troops thought the Arabs were putting them on. Then it sank in that Arabs really believe this stuff.   ..  Even Western educated Arabs, speaking good English, will casually express, and accept, these tales of the Israeli Mossad staging the attacks

When troops at one base discovered that they weren't being attacked much because many of the locals believed that the base was surrounded by a force field the troops would casually make reference to their force field. They would do this inside the base if any Iraqis were nearby and especially when they were outside the wire and among the locals.

Canada needs a Trump, not the Son of somebody.

Our culture is seizing up. The cream on top likes it and the milk on bottom hates it.  A Trump presidency will have more hands-on popular outcomes and fewer proxy fights where the players hide behind lawfare and PC interest group puppets.  It won't be what you call conservative but it will be a damn fine and overdue breath of fresh air.  He's no deep thinker and his positions will pivot to what works. He may just make America Great again.

"Lion rampant".  Neither donkey nor elephant.

















And BTW, Mexico will pay for part of a wall.  There's not enough outrage down there to say flat out, "NO".  There'll be a face-saving way in which money spent in a related area will defray part of the cost of a wall and maybe that wall won't be complete, but it will still shift the illegal numbers down.

Lose weight by finding the Cheat Calories and using a shortcut to count. UPDATE

3500 uncounted calories is a pound you gained.
Every time I go off counting, I get bigger.
Every time I go back to counting, I get smaller.
Counting is so picky, I hate it, but I found two helps.

1.  Use a shortcut list that lets me estimate without weighing every ingredient.
2.  Find the cheat calories and measure them.

First:
FIND THE CHEAT CALORIES.
Cheat 1:    I was eating less but I kept gaining.  Then I clued that I wasn't counting my coffee because it's just liquid, sort of like flavoured water.   WRONG.  I was putting 35% whipping cream and heaped up sugar into every cup about ten times a day while at work.   About 75 calories per cuppa.  This was good for a pound a week weight gain.   I forced myself to drink it black most of the time, found it wasn't so bad, and lost weight.  Even got accustomed to the taste after a while.    Hassle fix:  Eliminate the cheat calories so you don't have to count.

Cheat 2:  The next time my belly bulged, I was puzzled until I spotted the cheat.  I had taken to having little shots of Drambuie through the afternoon and evening, usually just a sip.  How could a little bit of liquid make me fat?   High alcohol drinks are the equivalent of drinking half water and half liquid fat.  I started measuring the booze and my weight went down again. I also sip a little less, now that I know a sip of the golden liqueur is like swallowing fat.  Hassle fix:  I weigh the entire bottle at day's end and count just once what I drank.

Check this newer post for a cheat sheet.














Friday 22 January 2016

"That's our boy". Political success has many fathers.

Trump is surely right when he says, " "I think they are warming up. I want to be honest, I have received so many phone calls from people that you would call 'establishment,' from people -- generally speaking conservative Republicans --that want to come in our team,”

Of course they do. Success has many fathers.  "That's a my boy, Trump".
He likes the stuff that other rich people like and he's winning.

Thursday 21 January 2016

Democracy, if necessary, but not necessarily democracy.

What an uproar with Trump and Sanders to our south!  Candidates popular with the people might get the most votes.  Today the National Review has rounded up pundits for a special dump Trump edition.   The common people (the usual translation of "demos") have the power to elect in Canada and the States. If you don't like it, make your case for another candidate but don't be a scold.  A lot of people think they are the cream afloat upon the voters' milk and believe it's their duty to make us vote for cream.
I used to milk a Jersey and put it
(the milk, not the cow)
in just such a jar.


Maybe the popular vote is not the best way to select leaders.  There's always the option of picking the first thousand names in the phone book for high office and contrariwise, the option to bid cash for high office.   There's the option of pre-qualifying voters by education, IQ, income or property. You can have public service exams to select the prime minister and his ministers.  You can always fall back on genetics and pick family members as we seem to have done with Trudeau II.  (Clinton II, Bush III).

As long as democracy by popular vote of all adult citizens is the law of the land, I suck it up when I don't get my way.   2016 is the year for more homogenized milk and less separation of the cream and the skim.

Copy Palin And Get Yourself Some Canadian Media Presence

Grumpy because media folk are locked to the left and think they are the only reasonable ones? I've seen a lot of advice to invest in media, not politicians.  Guess who did that?  Sarah Palin.

Glenn Reynold's advice:  "Don't waste your money on campaign donations. Want more influence for your buck?  Buy a liberal media outlet or better yet a women's magazine."

Palin didn't buy "Elle" but she became an entertainment celebrity. She's now being trashed as a sell out but she's moving votes successfully.  Copy her, rather than mock her, in our own Canadian way.

She takes flak for being an entertainment personality.  That's better than the Obama strategy to get invited onto other people's personality shows to chill out and win "likes".  Our voters are part of a culture, not cadres in a party structure.
"For most people politics is about personality, identity, and group loyalties. This is more like rooting for a sports team than support for particular ideas, ideology, or policy. It's always has been this way and probably always will be."
It's always going to be that way.  Now that everyone can publish their opinion cheaply ( and that includes me), popular populist politicians are going to be the norm.  Politics is changing and for the better because more players are in there trying to move the market in their favour.  That's competition.

Trump is pertinent to Canada because our PM is on record mocking him and the "mother country" has debated refusing him entry to Britain.  We can't operate in the American sphere without walking that back.  My mother would be shocked at such rudeness.

Sunday 17 January 2016

Trump Gets Credit For Iranian Prisoner Release?

I've been thinking this and Trump has now claimed it.
A prisoner swap is small potatoes but Obama had kept it off the table until suddenly now.
My interpretation:  Iran thinks Trump may be the next American president and they don't like the prospect of going from Obama softball to Trump hardball.  Wiping out one of Trump's planks while getting something for themselves, makes sense.

Every story is complex and the specifics of who is being released matter.  The impulse to release the prisoners, the proximate cause, may well have been triggered by Trump's ascendancy.   Remember, this was the same week Iran took American sailors at gun point and humiliated Obama.  Obviously Iran doesn't mind being disliked.  They're getting some hackers back and the US is getting some civilians back.


Saturday 16 January 2016

The Great Canadian Threat

Cruz is the "Manitoban Candidate", Goldberg observes, "hiding in plain sight until he can impose the metric system on our children and make us all passive-aggressively polite".
Source

He makes two memorable points:

"The issue (natural born citizen) remains unsettled because it matters so little",

and 
"Even less plausible than Cruz’s not being a natural-born citizen: that Donald Trump actually cares about this."

Dolts to the left of us, Dummies to the right. Which party has the smart voters?

Two studies show it depends on the topic.  One study found complex and nuanced language for topics that differ by party.
"Conservatives exhibited more complex thinking on ... open-door immigration, smoking, castration, and easy access to birth control. Liberals were complex when discussing organized religion, abortion on demand, making racial discrimination illegal, and being assertive".
A second study found dogmatism common to both left and right but the topics differed. 
The researchers report, "Conservatives are indeed more dogmatic on the religious domain; but liberals are more dogmatic on the environmental domain." 

Where are the populist candidates? Canada's behind the curve

The digital revolution means Jane and John Doe voters will publish more opinion than party poobahs.  The unintended consequence is more democracy.  The insiders' table is getting crowded by the "wrong sort" of people, but not in Canada.   "Feel The Bern" Sanders and "Build the Wall" Trump are crowding the top of the charts to our south.  Farage, Wilders, Le Pen, and various "evil right wing fringe groups" get traction elsewhere.

Pre-approved
The common element is populism, saying what a lot of voters really think.    The closest we come in Canada is Elizabeth May who is a narrowly-targeted populist, speaking to the vegetarian tin-hat brigade.  How come "This Man Is Approved By The Party" describes the leaders of the only three Canadian parties that count?  I envy the ferment across the line in the US of A.

LOL:   Don Cherry for PC lead?  
Change is on its way.   Remember, to "reform" something is simply to change its shape or form
and doesn't mean "improve".

There's more where this came from




Friday 15 January 2016

Canadian example that Trump will win big

Four months ago, my colleague at work was choosing to vote Liberal or NDP.  Yesterday he tells me, "Trump makes a lot sense, he's the only one who tells it the way it is".  If the Canadian centre left is this easily wooed, be sure that the crossover vote from Democrats will be YUGE.  Left-to-right is not the only voting dimension.   Straight talk-vs (doublespeak and dissimulation) is a voting dimension.  What's true and workable is a third dimension but no one appears to be offering it and I probably wouldn't know it if I tripped over it.

Tuesday 12 January 2016

Monday 11 January 2016

Your Grandkids Won't Have Relatives

Big Government is baked into our future, thanks to cute babies, one per couple.
The math isn't hard.  After two generations of one-baby families, the kids of your kids will have no sisters or brothers, and no cousins, either.  And no uncles and no aunts either.

Big Government and Big Data are the new ties that bind.  They will grow and not shrink and so will the dependency on support from strangers who don't love you.  Politics is grooving to the left, fueled by demographics.

I don't see "The Waltons" or "Cheaper By The Dozen" making a comeback, but with  pink-tinted glasses, I see networks forming through social media, networks that meet needs kin groups used to meet, networks that leapfrog right over Big Government and make such top down governance a teentsy bit obsolete.

Saturday 9 January 2016

Anti Theft Device For Car

This device targets Millenials, since most active thieves are younger types.

Software counts emotions

EMOTIENT  guesses and counts the emotions of the people being recorded in real time.  Think "angry crowds"  "shoppers"  "students"  "focus group"  "negotiators".  APPLE bought this startup recently and the demo is impressive.
 
Emotient Analytics in Action from Emotient on Vimeo.

Friday 8 January 2016

If we were out of the hole, CPP or education funding could be doubled

Don't pooh pooh interest payments on the national debt.  The Fraser Institute puts the spending together for both levels of government in Canada and the debt burden is horrifying. 

One infographic:


Better yet, let the people
who earned those billions blown on borrowed bucks, keep those billions.

Insane crowding on earth.

People are insanely crowded into small patches of earth.  See map.  The north fringe of India, the environs of Beijing, southern Indonesia and a little patch at the mouth of the Nile account for most of world population.    If labour is wealth, China and India are top of the heap.

Breaking: Hillary disguised email to remove security classification

Smoking gun at Hot Air.
Hillary e-mail instructs aide to transmit classified data without markings
Email conversation chain reproduced at link.

“If they can’t, turn into nonpaper w no identifying heading and send nonsecure.” That’s an order to violate the laws handling classified material. There is no other way to read that demand.

Gun deaths: Black murder and White suicide. Men first and Women last.

Culture channels violence inwards for whites and outwards for blacks.

AND
Culture channels violence from men towards men.

















This story was picked up by the Washington Post but left out the sex chart.  I'm guessing that deaths by gender make women look favoured and men look like victims, not the flavour du jour.

Men don't like men who don't like sports.

There's an awkward hush when they learn I don't know who's playing in the Stanley or Grey Cup this year.  The Power Line comment hits it:
"Here’s a fact of life, men don’t like men who don’t like sports. If you want to have influence on other men you have to be able to talk about sports knowledgeably.  .. Treat it like homework."     (more at the link)

Thursday 7 January 2016

Tale of Two Stacked Townhalls. UPDATE

Compare and contrast:  When there's not enough seating, stack the room with supporters.
Obama is doing a town hall tonight with CNN.  Admission by invitation only.
Trump is doing a Vermont town hall tonight but only lets supporters in.

Re Obama:  "Staged propaganda session" with enough seating for a soiree.
Re Trump: Seating in Vermont for 1400 but over 10,000 tickets given out in Bernie Sanders home town. Pick your headline:  "Donald Trump Bars Undecided Voters At Vermont Rally" or  "Donald Trump says he's "taking care of my people".





UPDATE:   Obama said nothing but cleverly.  Trump supplied red meat that addresses a problem and doesn't create more government:

From Obama's townhall, Thomas' Sowell's review:
 It was beautifully choreographed, like a great ballet, and performed with consummate skill and understated eloquence.    As for the substance of what Obama said, there was very little substance, and much of it false.

“I will get rid of gun-free zones in schools — you have to — and on military bases on my first day. It gets signed. My first day – there’s no more gun free zones,” Trump told supporters as they cheered wildly.   Trump pointed out that gun-free zones were dangerous because they attracted people considering a mass shooting.

PS. A commenter at HotAir explains the 20,000 tickets:  "When the rally was announced, protesters said they would round up all the tickets in advance and then not show up…..their goal was to make
trump look bad speaking to an empty venue. Trump responded by making 20,000 tickets available"