Last Minute Poll Trends In South Carolina

Chart from Real Clear Politics:

Good Fences Make Good Neighbours: The Vatican's is higher than the US-Mexico border.

The Pope made neẃs yesterday with his provocative mass at the Mexico-US border. I get the part about compassion for those who yearn for a better life but not for the right to break into someone else's place to get it.  His foray into US politics includes saying that someone who only wants to put up walls isn't a Christian.  It appears that only Donald Trump is the peg for that hole.  The Donald ripostes that the Pope should fear terrorists attacking the Vatican, as they have sworn they will.  John Nolte at Breitbart points out the Vatican is a walled city and far more secure than the US border with Mexico.

US Sidelined Or On Other Team in ME says Ambassador Crocker

Ryan Crocker who was the US Ambassador to Iraq in 2007 has this surprising report.  He's just back from a Middle East visit and the locals are debating two theories about the US:   One theory is that the US has been sidelined while Russia, Iran and Syria dominate.  The other theory is that the US is an active fourth member of the Russia-Iran axis.  Noteworthy for them is the US decision to fund Iran's hegemonic outreach by releasing billions.

Article at Power Line, "An Axis of Three or Four?"

Trump Presidency Guarantees Rebalancing Between Executive And Congress

The executive faithfully performs the will of congress, upholding the constitution but with discretion in times of war.   Trump, like Obama, thinks the President is the boss.  Unlike Obama, he won't get away with it.  Both sides of both houses of congress will unite to halter this populist parvenu.   This is the bedrock territory of DNCe and GOPe and they will defend it at last.

There have been decades of undeclared war at the president's discretion and that may not be cured, but fixing the balance between the Executive and Legislative branches will be front and center in 2016.

Source

White House Strategy Defeats US Military Tactics

Mark Moyar of the Hoover Institute exposes seven ways white house strategy has overridden and defeated US military tactics.  It's the president's prerogative to define strategy.  The article is the best review I've seen and covers Bush (43) and Obama's years. "Theories on democratization made Bush and Obama overly optimistic about the prospects for intervention in certain countries. " Missing only is the genius to explain how the White House should make better calls.

"When a country enjoys tactical military success as consistently as the United States, responsibility for strategic success must rest primarily with those who make strategy. The American military could be held culpable for recent strategic setbacks were it highly influential in the crafting of strategy. But its influence under the Bush administration was much more limited, and under the Obama administration its strategic advice has largely been ignored.

A review of America’s military interventions since 2001 reveals that seven broad errors account for America’s inability to turn tactical successes into strategic victories. These errors are described below. In every instance, the error was the direct result of presidential decisions on policy or strategy. Some of those decisions ran in direct contradiction of the military’s advice. The military can be faulted for some significant tactical errors, such as ignorance of counterinsurgency in the early years of the Iraq war and excessive reliance on population-centric counterinsurgency doctrine in the middle years of the Afghan war. But the military eventually corrected its major tactical problems, and none of those problems thwarted strategic success."

Super Delegates: "Where are Bernie's?" is the story.

News stories about Hillary having several hundred super delegates after the first two primaries are misleading.  Case in point, how did she end up with just 2 delegates more than Bernie if she has several hundred pledged super delegates?  The real story appears to be how little support Bernie Sanders has won, not how much Hillary Clinton has.

Some 4763 delegates are being picked for the nominating convention.  712 of those (less than 20%) are named in advance (super delegates).  They include "distinguished party leaders", senators, representatives, governors, and noteworthy party members. (See chart) As of today, Wikipedia reports 420 of those 712 have expressed a preference for Hillary Clinton but they may vote as they choose, unlike the delegates who are allocated from primaries.

When you read that Hillary has hundreds of delegates more than Bernie, this means she has about 10% of the convention vote preferring her to Bernie, a 10% that is free to change its vote.  How come Bernie Saunders doesn't have a roster of supporters too?  His independent, crusty style has cost him a network.

There's a reason why Sanders isn't getting the level of support Clinton is from Democratic Party leaders. While she has been a Democrat for decades, the same is not true for Sanders, who only caucuses with Democrats in the Senate. In fact, his Senate biography boasts that he is the "longest-serving independent member of Congress."

Not such a bad method either.  Super delegates don't stop change but they reduce the likelihood that small changes in the crowd's desire will steer the boat.  This is like following a four-year smoothed curve for a stock instead of following daily trading peaks and trenches.

Climate Change Science Not Settled Any More: Perfect Storm Of Hypocrisy.

Australian climate scientists about to lose their jobs suddenly discovered the science isn't settled.  The chief of Australia's science agency ( CSIRO) cited the success of AGW research as he announced a layoff of 300 now-redundant scientists to cover a $110 million budget hole.  The need for more science was rediscovered briskly.

“Climate science is not solved,” declared Todd Lane, president of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. “Most of the uncertainty in climate projections is due to uncertainty about the ways to represent physical processes in climate models.

Will Steffen, Emeritus Professor at ANU and a Climate Councillor at the Climate Council of Australia. "We absolutely need to know more about the basic operation of the climate system".

John Church, a CSIRO climate researcher since 1978 who anticipates losing his job. “There is a clear need for ongoing sustained and enhanced observations. The science community is actually struggling to address these issues.”

I called this "hypocrisy" in the lede unfairly.  The AGW triumphalism was the hypocrisy.  This is a return to a more normal scientific state where hypothesis leads to tests and everything settled is tested and retested as knowledge comes to light.  So I hope.

Alzheimers disappearing

I'd prefer tau gene repair to more assisted living spaces in Canada's health budgets. The big story while we wait to live forever is that  the rate of dementia has been going down rapidly, 20% every decade for the last four decades. There's so many more of us living long that our absolute numbers have gone up but the big news is the rate per thousand has plummeted.  The reason why is still a mystery.

And then there's this:  "A cure for the disorder is five to ten years away". The news story is targeted at one form of dementia responsible for 20% of the disorder.

Taking it easy like in the
good old days.
Not about to happen

Assisted living is fine.  Radical renewal of adults is better. Top that up with a policy cure and cultural shift for seniors who want work and pension income until age 130 and beyond.


The rate of change is not slowing down.  There's no mean to revert to this side of the bronze age.

Gravitational Waves From Ancient Black Hole Orgasm Detected Live

The night of September 14th, three observatories tracked a fractional second orgasm of two black hole stars collapsing into each other as their mating circle climaxed 1.3 billion years ago.   Gravitational waves from the disappeared matter were detected in triplicate, milliseconds apart, on earth.   Thank you for atomic clocks, curious minds, and confirmation of Einstein's prediction that such waves exist.

http://www.sciencealert.com/live-update-big-gravitational-wave-announcement-is-happening-right-now

Image from linked story
where more information is posted.

Trump - Nothing like the guy you see on television. Bring on the copycats.

After reading this warm-hearted anecdote, you may agree with me that Canada and the USA need Trump to come a very close second "pour encourager les autres".  Even a spectacular near miss will bring out bolder candidates for the next election, men and women with the confidence to run for high office with plain talk and an open heart for our country.

From the comments at Hot Air:

"  In 1989 I hitchhiked around America. At one point I found myself on the Island of Nantucket. It was early May, the height of Nantucket’s tourist season. I was pretty much out of money and bought myself a pack of hot dogs for supper.  I went to the harbor to eat them while watching the boats sail around the Island. On one of the private docks there are bungalows that belong to slip owners. Out in front of one of those bungalows was a man grilling several steaks.
   He saw me eating my raw hot dogs and offered to let me cook them on his grill. I put a couple of hot dogs on his grill, and gratefully accepted the beer he offered me. Then, to my surprise, as he was flipping one of his steaks, he knocked my hot dogs into the coals.
He feigned surprise and apologized, and gave me one of the steaks he was grilling.
Yes… the man I am talking about is Donald Trump. No, in 1998 I had no idea who Donald Trump was. I did not find out who he was for several more months.
   During the time were were sitting there drinking Heineken’s and eating our steaks we talked. For probably about 2 and a half to 3 hours. The private Donald Trump is nothing like the person you guys see on television. His sense of humor is slightly ribald, he is soft spoken and gentle. He is amazingly comfortable in his own skin. If the nominee, I am still not sure I will vote for him. But this I do know, anyone expecting him to be rude or snide in victory or even in defeat, have no clue who Donald Trump really is. They are making up a version of him in their own minds, that does not exist."

$170 Trillion Markdown on Oil Reserves

At my shop in the Okanagan, I've been running into skilled Alberta people looking for work.  That never happened before.

Proven oil reserves in the world: >1.7 trillion barrels.
The market value of that oil declined by $100/barrel in the last18 months.
$170 trillion US$ that people were borrowing and lending on has disappeared.

Wikipedia:  GDP of the world economy in 2014 =  $77 trillion. 
The lesser is moved by the greater.  This has got to matter.

And from Zero Hedge:  "Dallas Fed Quietly Suspends Energy Mark-To-Market On Default Contagion Fears".

Baby names rate the Presidents. Hillary is Toast.

This baby name chart has two surprises.  Listed is baby name popularity matched up to the terms of Presidents and their First Ladies.  Two stand out with a flash-in-the-pan mania followed by active revulsion:    Bill Clinton's wife and Michelle Obama's husband.  Conclusion:  Hillary will be bumped by Biden or Sanders for 2016.  All the other names show the normal decline in popularity as older people tend to have names that have gone out of fashion.  No adulatory bump for them.

Insufficient Opportunities For Graft

Politicians are individuals.  "What is best for me?" decides the vote.  "What is best for me?" decides the vote for brainy and dorky ones, for radical and stodgy ones, and for you and me, too.  This won't change and that's the good news.    You can count on self interest.  Good policy exploits it and bad policy conceals self interest from public view.

Notes from Glenn Reynolds' USA Today column:  Rapid transit will trump buses because there are more opportunities for graft.  Bus routes can be set up in a day and changed the day after.   LRT trains and subways involve years of construction contracts and jobs and can't be taken away by a second vote.  They bump the value of real estate by tens of millions along the route and around stations.  A lot of players bringing gifts want to cozy up to a politician who will vote for LRT and almost none cozy up for the bus vote.  The projects raise tax revenue.  They make headlines for the politicians where a bus line won't.  Bus lines are more flexible and cheaper but have fewer opportunities to advance a politician's self worth.

In summary: 

"This analysis goes far beyond buses. The explanation for why politicians don’t do all sorts of reasonable-sounding things usually boils down to “insufficient opportunities for graft.” And, conversely, the reason why politicians choose to do many of the things that they do is ... you guessed it, sufficient opportunities for graft.

That graft may come in the form of bags of cash, or shady real-estate deals, or “consulting” gigs for a brother-in-law or child, but it may also come in broader terms of political support and even in opportunities for politicians to feel superior or to humiliate their enemies. What all these things have in common, though, is that they’re not about making life better for voters. They’re about making life better for politicians."

My cure is letting more self-interested voters in to compete for the spoils. That's the beauty of the eWorld.  It's not cynical to rely on human nature, because you can always count on it.

Good decisions have some of the gold coloured virtues on the winning side.
A better picture shows self interest represented in hundreds and even
thousands on both sides of the balances,
like a Massive Online Open Game

Vulgar is good. Another Trump-themed post.

Trump gets schlonged with the term, "Vulgar".   Remember when the Roman church brought out the Vulgate?  They chose to make the secret knowledge of the church available to any common person who could read Latin.   The vulgar are the common people, the general public, what we call nowadays, voters.

For a thousand years, city folk have been snobbing it over country folk, what we call fly-over country.    "Peasant" and "Pagan" derive from the word for countryside.  The "Vulgar" are the general public.   The critics who came up with these terms for the bumpkins and great unwashed hordes at the gate, believe that they are civilized (Latin "civitatis" = city) and urbane (urbs = walled city).   Yes, Trump is vulgar, from the outermost burbs of New York where no civilized people would go, and accessible to commoners. He may not prevail but he deserves to.

Networks have the most to lose in 2016

Trump tweets his parade for free while the networks are counting on more than a billion dollars of TV ads in 2016 to put them in the black.  It worked in 2012 but is now in jeopardy.  FOX too has to hate him because he puts a chunk of their business plan in the dumpster.  When Trump pulled an end run on the final GOP network debate, he didn't lose. Though he sounds bizarre asking FOX to make a $5,000,000 donation to the vets, this is naughty politics but good business.  FOX knows they will make substantially more from the one evening's ad sales.  Bring it on, let the networks scramble for a diminishing pile of dollars.  That's what social media are for, to bring down the cost of getting in touch.     

Hollywood pays the big bucks out for star power.  Top pitchers and quarterbacks command stunning sums.   Campaigning is no different.  The television people ascended to power in the fifties and have had half a century pulling the strings of public news and they pay for ratings.  Paying candidates directly to appear on a show sounds iffy to me, but paying a tax to an honourable third party charity to have them on the show sounds just fine.  Should they be elected to public office, the rules change for they owe an answer to the voters who put them there.

Cruz votes Trump

Imitation is the sincerest flattery.  Trump stepped out of the circle and Cruz followed him, offering $1.5 million for veterans in trade for an unsanctioned debate, outside the GOPe perimeter. Cruz is bold but he is following the master.  The rest are on catch-up.  That includes the networks, not just the candidates.  The networks were the gatekeepers and now have competition.

My Trumpian comeback?  "If you want to help our veterans, go right ahead and donate the $1.5 million.  Don't let me stop you."

Megyn, Don't Mess With Trump UPDATE

The Donald's twitter feed is devastating.  The spear point is petty (Meagan) but the spear is aimed at the billion dollar industry cohosting the Democratic party.

UPDATE: The message to Megyn can remain and the Saudi part ownership of Fox can remain but the photo is fake.  Sorry.

Stroke of bleeding genius - Trump's petulant play to give the last FOX debate a pass.. UPDATE

Until Trump announced he is passing up the last Fox debate, I thought he was merely petty.  The light came on when he actually bugged out of Fox's show.  He's doing "God's work", doing the right a big favour, opening a road around the media's left bias.  Instapundit nails it, calling the American press "Democratic operatives with bylines".   It's the same here at home in Canada.

It's not a debate between the press and the candidates.  It's a debate AMONG candidates and that calls for a moderator, not an adversary.  The "adversary" part is between candidates.  Why we still let CBC and CTV and such like own the stage and define the debate, is beyond me.  They can report it but are just in the way claiming to moderate it.

Source

If Trump pulls off some good ratings for his "off-Broadway" show in Iowa, raising funds for veterans, and if Roger Ailes loses about half the debate viewers in Trump's absence, the next election cycle will have proper debates with referees, not insurgents like Candy Crowley hogging the mike.  The networks and newspapers don't own the message today and will be busy enough trying to salvage a workable business plan just to stay in the game.

Crazy like a fox!  Trump has attracted a lot of new attention and his off-Broadway show will be in Iowa winning voters a couple days before the Primary.


UPDATE:  It gets better. Trump says he'll talk chairman to chairman with Murdoch but won't pick up for Ailes.   Petulance or genius?  I like his face-to-face approach.  Talk to the principals and skip the UN speeches.

UPDATE: FOX is doubling down and wrong-footing it: "Fox News and Google have invited three YouTube personalities to ask questions at the Jan. 28 GOP debate — including a Muslim advocate who describes Donald Trump as a bigot and who visually portrayed him as being in agreement with national socialist Adolf Hitler."

UPDATE:  Quoted at smalldeadanimals:  "Democrats are watching. Trump is framing himself as an enemy of their enemy. (Democrats hate FOX News.)"  And from Kate's link to Scott Adams of Dilbert fame:    "For starters, tell me what you learned about all the other candidates today.
Nothing?   Trump sucked the oxygen out of the room.   Again."   Scott also says Donald will twitter-feed all over the FOX debate: If they bring a knife at him, he'll bring a gun.

UPDATE:  You can call it a fit of pique or showmanship but not lack of courage.  A hundred million people were lined up ready to mock him for lacking a spine before Meagan.  This was a given.  And they are all going to tune in next week to see what Donald does next.  He's done shows for years and you always end a good one with a cliff-hanger for the next.

Money has its own politics.

Shared values of the very rich prevail. Breitbart notes there are over 500 billionaires in the States, some left and some right, but their world views chime together. The ten point summary rings true.  Here are the ledes.  Read the rest.

1.   Billionaires don’t like to pay taxes.
2.   Billionaires like globalization.
3.   Immigration. From the Billionaires’ Consensus point of view, if money and goods can flow freely around the world, why not people?  
4.   Crony capitalism.
5.   Celebrating the “new economy.”  
6.   Environmental elitism.
7.   Earned entitlement cuts.
8.   Free Love, or at least, deregulated love.
9.   More US “engagement” with the world.
10. Always, two tiers—one for them, one for us. 

They're valid viewpoints but it makes my blood boil when behind the scenes tinkering makes them prevail.   #4 is my bugbear.
   

So what if Ted Cruz was born in Calgary?

Are Americans afraid Cruz would be a puppet of Trudeau fils?  Is nationalism so strong that we assume a dual or naturalized citizen will betray the homeland?  This is a version of "identity politics" and it's time it took a beating.  Has only a dog something worth saying about dog food?  Has only a black lesbian anything worth saying about black lesbians?  Can only a one-armed paper hanger talk intelligently about wall paper trouble?  

The flap in the states over Cruz' Canadian birth is embarrassing.  It's atavistic, baked into the genes, this distrust of someone who isn't from around here and one of us from way back.  It's especially odd to find this attitude in Canada when thousands of miles separate the communities "that make up this great land".  You could say that "nobody's from around here" when you look up and down the parliamentary benches and see MPs who have no neighbours or family in common from their growing up days.  Yet, there they sit, citizens and patriots all.    Identity politics is illogical to me but it isn't going away any time soon, at least not until Canadians stop cheering the national team franchised nearest to their own home town.