Sunday, 26 February 2012

Iran has no choice

Escalation in the Gulf of Hormuz is the only likely choice for Iran.  In Prisoner's Dilemma, this is called "always defect". Have you noticed the media are full of this story in the last six weeks even though the elements have been there for years?
The escalation slider was just shifted up by one more level, as Iran will next do just what every actor caught in an 'Always Defect' regime as part of an iterated prisoners' dilemma always does - step up the rhetoric even more, as backing off at this point is impossible. Which means that crude will go that much more higher in the coming days.  Zero Hedge.
The sense that war is inevitable and unstoppable is being energetically encouraged by political hardliners and their media accomplices on all sides, producing a momentum that even the un-bellicose Obama may find hard to resist.   The Guardian.
Zero Hedge details tit for tat exchanges, links to positioning of US aircraft carriers and quotes stories from the Wall Street Journal and The Guardian.

iPhone Screenshot 1
An app for the iPhone
Cascades of consequences:  Expect to see a US aircraft carrier sunk by a first strike in the waters of Hormuz before Iran's attack powers are degraded.  A storm of missiles that are 98% shot-down leaves 2% to hit a platform of American power.   This will reliably inflame American popular opinion with knee jerk escalation to follow.

Remember Saudia Arabia and the Emirates are actually kind of keen to have someone weaken Iran (the homeland of Shia and the Persian Empire, and the would be guardian of Mecca).

We'll be sucked into the turbulence, despite thinking its a bad idea.  Jeremiah told a Hebrew fighting force to settle down and take their lumps under Babylon's rule but they wouldn't listen.  They rebelliously headed off to Egypt and Jeremiah went along with them because they may be idiots but they were his kind of idiots.

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