Foreignpolicy.com spells out the choice. Call it quits in Ukraine and look weak. Go for broke and be beat when the big powers pitch in. Or gain empire and win Russian popularity by throwing a bomb in some backwater where the powers dither about the provocation. How about a nice little plebiscite in a corner of Estonia to join Mother Russia? Do you think NATO or the US would step up to the plate if the battlefield was small enough and far enough away from Washington, London and Paris?Estonia is no Hicksville but to snobs in the financial capitals, it doesn't rate.
Are you speaking figuratively? A nuclear test might work for them but a nuclear weapon of any size used on anyone in anger will not work out well for Russia.
ReplyDeleteIt won't work out well but a low yield tactical weapon could add prestige at home and territory without provoking a NATO or US response.
ReplyDeleteExcept that Estonia is a full member of NATO and not just a Partnership for Peace member as the Ukraine is http://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/#members . If Russia attacked Estonia with anything, then NATO would have to respond under article 5.
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