Sunday, 1 November 2020

Simple math puts TRUMP first for Nov 3 2020

 In 2016 Trump won.
What changed since then?
The Never-Trumpers left at the time but I haven't heard of new leavers since 2016.
I have heard of no Trump voters who are turning their backs on him.

The people who voted Trump last time are out in boat and car parades, ready to vote for Trump again.
I read stories about people who held their nose and voted Trump in 2016 but will crawl over broken glass to vote for him this time.
There's a small movement of people out of the Democrat fold under the flag "Walk Away".
A few more states have purged voter rolls of dead or merely departed voters, a few whom were somehow voting, and largely voting Democrat.
There's a definite increase in support from Black Americans.
There seem to be longer lines to vote this time and the enthusiasm factor seems to be mostly Republican, or more correctly, "Trump".

Whatever the final tally for the 2020 election, there will be more Trump voters this time than 2016.
Last time the polls were out a lot but at the last minute got better for Trump.
This time the polls are out even more and at the last minute are getting better for Trump.
For the run-up, pollsters have their elbow on the scales for their preferred party, Democrat.
For the showdown, pollsters protect their reputation by being more truthy at the last minute.
The numbers have been TRUMP for some time, despite the Covid shock.

And wins the popular vote.




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