The UK government document for the week just ended shows that in absolute numbers almost six times more (Correction: 80+ aged )vaccinated people died from Covid-19 complications than unvaccinated did. Remember, these are people who were vaccinated so they'd be immune, or so we believed at first. That's a shocker. (No correction. Still a shocker.)
Less shocking are the rates per 100,000. The chart on page 15 shows that the vaccinated did much better than the unvaccinated and most of the vaccinated deaths occur within one month of the jab( Correction: within one month of testing positive, not shocking at all.) going up just a little by the end of the secondmonth (Page 16 chart). This matches reports elsewhere that the spike protein does most of its damage early on and gradually disappears from the system. (Correction: the chart doesn't address spike protein since it addresses the generic "tested positive" rather than "got the jab".)
The BBC says last week that 86% of the over 12 population is double or single vaccinated. Do a little math. 14% of the over 12 population is therefore unvaccinated. Total deaths linked to Covid-19 last week were 1521(for those (correction: 80 and over )who died within a month of testing positive for Covid-19). 14% of that gives 212 on the assumption that vaccinated and unvaccinated were equally likely to die. That's the result I get. The reported number in this chart is 198. This implies to me that the vaccinated are just as likely to die as the unvaccinated when they take ill. How does that fit with the two right hand columns that show rates per 100,000 are multiple times higher for the unvaccinated? You tell me. (Correcting to include all age cohorts I get 730 unvaccinated deaths and 2395 vaccinated or partially vaccinated deaths. Redoing the math, 23% of the deaths were in the unvaccinated group, a little higher than the 14% they represent.)
The good news if my math is wrong is that the protected people (who aren't really protected) are dying at less than one third the rate of the unvaccinated who also catch Covid-19. (Correction: I misinterpreted the chart). The bad news for the unvaccinated is that the risk of death if they catch Covid-19 in late middle age is quite a bit higher than the risk for the vaccinated, even though almost everyone in either group will survive. (Correction? I don't think so)
- You mistook the bottom line in Table 4 as the sum. It is the 80+ row.
- The final columns show unvaccinated people are roughly 3-5 times more likely to die. Your math ignores cohort populations. Immediately preceding the tables was an explicit warning "there is a high risk of misinterpretation" for this reason.
- More vaccinated people dying is consistent and expected because most people are now vaccinated, vaccines do not give full immunity and protection wanes after 6 months. One analysis shows Pfizer dropping from 88% to 74% efficacy after 6 months. The Office for National Statistics estimated in August that 1% of infected people at that time were already second infections.
- The second chart doesn't provide any evidence about spike proteins. Most people taken into emergency care died in the first 28 days after infection NOT injection. A few stragglers survived into the next month. The columns that do include injection timing information require population context to interpret per above."
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