The unexpected is likely now: Some signs in China and the US are sunny for us.

 Democracy has been on the decline as petty tyrants exploit Covid fears but some signals point to a brighter future in the West.     This litany of woes from the Chinese Communist Party's enclave encourage me though I wish the best for the Chinese people.  And this summary from the States suggests that except close to the bonfires of the Covid fearmongers, most Americans are now getting on with normal life by the light of day.  And what do I thank the most for that?  Omicron's impressive infectivity of the upper respiratory tract and equally impressive failure to kill and maim.

My view:  The unexpected is likely: outcomes worse or better than generally nattered on about, have become more likely.   The image of dry sand being piled higher and higher comes to mind.  At some point, a single grain starting to move anywhere on the surface of the pile will be enough to trigger an avalanche of grains.  Predicting that point is difficult, more difficult than any time before in my life.