Wednesday, 17 August 2011

Asteroid won't hit earth but how close will Apophis come? Updated: China too. Updated: 2011 AG5 Updated: ten thousandth found


The European Space Agency plans a high speed crash onto an asteroid in 2015.  A second satellite will stand by and measure how the trajectory shifts.  The half ton craft will strike at about 20,000 mph.  99942 Apophis, a quarter mile across,  has a 1:250,000 chance of meeting our earth in 2036, "so it would be useful target practice". Since the lump of rock has maybe ten billion miles to cover before then, a small nudge will add up.
The Daily Mail. h/t Drudge.

NASA has plans to land astronauts on an asteroid within 15 years. 'You can't land on an asteroid because you'd bounce off - it has virtually no gravity. [...]Nasa is thinking about jetpacks, tethers, bungees, nets and spiderwebs to allow explorers to float just above the surface of it while attached to a smaller mini-spaceship'.  (Same story, or try this one.)

Russia is thinking of hitting that asteroid too and promises not to use nuclear weapons.  Story from 2009.

Just how likely is a hit from Apophis on April 13th 2036?
1:37 chance  (2004 estimate reported.)Apophis: The Asteroid That Could Smash Into The Earth
1:250,000 chance  (2011 estimate, missing by 20,000 miles)Will Apophis the asteroid hit Earth in 2036?
For detail of all estimates, see Wikipedia.
NASA has a section dedicated to tracking asteroids: Near-Earth Object Program - NASA  As of August 14th 2011, 8071 objects have been identified and are being tracked.

Updated:  China Reveals Solar Sail Plan To Prevent Apophis Hitting Earth in 2036.
Updated:  NASA's  "WISE" survey puts tight upper limits on asteroid population.  911 of the estimated 981 over 1 km objects are being tracked.  A few surprises show up though.
Updated2011 AG5 is a possible hit in 2040. Only 140 meters across, before it hits the atmosphere. Could be used as "proof of concept" to test our ability to deflect incoming rocks.
Updated:  Ten thousandth near earth object discovered June 2013.
Probably only a few dozen more of these large (>1km) NEOs remain undiscovered.

Below: Animated model of all asteroids

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