The IHME predictions of virus death have been flopping up and down as modellers fiddle with knobs. Hinderaker at Powerlineblog fills in some blanks. Good public policy cannot be based on the IHME model.
The numbers change because the model changed, not because the state changed.
A core input is Social distancing but the math isn't explained and effectiveness isn't measured.
The model doesn't try to evaluate partial opening-up of states.
As Hinderaker points out, week by week the predictions of IHME change bizarrely.
Death predictions made week of... April 11 April 15 April 22
South Dakota 356 181 093
North Dakota 369 032 356
Iowa 743 618 365
Minnesota 442 656 360
It's almost like a random walk. What madness has seized us that elevates modellers and governors to the place they are today, telling us how to do our jobs and how to run our home life? Somehow the "flatten the curve so hospital ICU's won't be overwhelmed" has morphed into: "Disobey me and you'll be sorry."
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