Saturday, 25 July 2020

Re-Opening COVID Death Models Were Wrong And Ridiculous.

This chart from the Imperial College London show the updated serious best guesses of what COVID deaths would rise to in the first eight weeks after reopening four states:  WA  NY  MA FL    With early May as the start point, they charted three scenarios where people either continued staying mostly home or increased their circulation by 20% or 40%.  Black is the data they already had. Blue is the no-change guess, yellow the 20% guess and pink the 40% guess.  Now look at the little red dot superimposed on their devastatingly wrong guesses.  It sits at the bottom of the chart at the extreme least worrisome of their guesses or even below it.  Some states have had an increase in the last couple weeks but this is outside the frame of the experts' test.  If included, they'd be a small blip in the bottom third of the bottom bar of the charts.

Have you been shaking for fear about those recently hyped death numbers that would scarcely register on the experts' opinion page?  Seriously, do you want public policy made by fools who are in love with their credentialed fancies?  Why would you trust politicians who say the blue yellow and pink guesses are why they have to shut you down and wield unprecedented power?

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