From Mauldin's latest free newsletter.
North Africa inclduing Egypt and Lebanon are heavily dependent on Russia and the Ukraine to feed their people. Some will skip debt payments to feed their people and avoid riots.
A quarter of US$ denominated debt in China is "stressed" and risks going unpaid.
Ukraine and Russia corner the world market in sunflower oil.
GDP and the velocity of money tracked each other for decades but velocity plunged beginning 2010. The measuring tape to predict recessions is damaged.
Every penny rise in for a gallon of gas costs the US economy 1.2 billion dollars. The actual changes in the US are similar to a tax increase of $200,000,000,000. It will be felt.
The 7.9% inflation jump February in the CPI index doesnt reflect the start of war. This number is going up.
China gets a lot of oil from Russia too. The world will want to burn the same amount of oil but will be buying it from a smaller pool. There won't be enough for a while.
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